It is customary for failing (flailing) regimes to start wars to divert people from their failures. You may be right about Iran. But going to war with Iran will have far more drastic consequences than Iraq and Afghanistan. An invaded Iran would have little choice but to strike Israel, broadening the conflict. The Russians would certainly provide arms and probably advisors. Iran is much larger than Iraq, requiring a larger invasion force. If the Iraqi government doesn’t allow its territory to be used as an invasion launchpad, (certainly possible) that would mean Turkey or an amphibious invasion. I doubt that Turkey, caught up in its own domestic crisis, will want to antagonize the Russians. Amphibious assaults are notoriously difficult and require extensive planning, complete air supremacy and massive force. I doubt the US military is up to the challenge right now. Finally, but importantly, casualties could be very high indeed. You don’t have to look hard to know that the American public has no stomach for sustaining casualties, especially over a long term. We prefer that others do the dying. None of these facts might be enough to stop a desperate Trump regime, but the results of such rash action portend disaster.